If we win, street parties will erupt across the country as millions celebrate our finest hour of glory against the Spanish since Francis Drake defeated the Spanish Armada.
It’s all terribly confusing. For a while we were the favourites, then it became all about the Russians. Now apparently Spain/Portugal are the leading contenders, armed with the votes of the South American and Asian confederations.
The momentum is certainly with Spain, but the race is on a knife edge, almost resembling a miniature global version of a General Election. There are core votes – the likes of Argentina will inevitably vote for the Spanish, they always will. But then there are the swing voters to whom England must appeal if it is to win the right to host the competition.
To break it down, there are 22 voters. There could be a 23rd, in the shape of Oceana’s David Chung, but that is unlikely. If he turns up, England’s bid will be boosted as he is expected to vote for them.
South America holds three votes (Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay). These are almost definitely Spanish votes, though it is possible that Paraguay may swing towards England following the arrangement of a friendly between the two countries. The more likely outcome though, is that Paraguay vote for England in the unlikely event of the contest going to a Russia V England showdown.
North America is English territory, with the US’s Chuck Blazer most likely to vote for England. Jack Warner will be a crucial swing voter here, and despite the accusations thrown at him by the BBC on Monday night’s Panorama, he could be swung by the charms of the Three Lions (Dave I, Dave II and Will). The third voter, Guatemala, may be more naturally disposed towards the Spanish bid, but if Warner votes for England then he may order Rafael Salguero to follow his lead.
Onto Asia, and the Japanese are likely to vote for England as their representative has always insisted he would. But then this is Portuguese/Spanish territory, with the Qatari representative backing Spain publicly, along with the widespread belief that the two bids have colluded. A certainty to back the Iberians, it will be Worawi Makudi of Thailand who could prove decisive, as he could come down on either side of this particular fence. The other Asian, Chung Mong-Joon, is backing Russia, though it is anticipated that he would switch to England if the Russians fall at the first hurdle.
Oceana probably won’t be represented, so we move to Africa, which is a more difficult continent to predict. Egypt said they’d vote for the best technical bid, which would mean England, but reports suggest they are going with the Iberians. Issa Hayatou is the other representative from Africa, and chances of convincing him to go with England are harmed by the allegations made against him by the BBC on Monday. Safe money would suggest he would also vote for Spain/Portugal. The Ivory Coast could go to England or Spain/Portugal; again, the safe bet is the latter.
And so to Europe. The main bidders each have a vote each through Spain, England, Russia and Belgium. Michel Platini is voting for the Belgium/Holland bid, but they are likely to fall in the first round, and so if England make it through his support will be vital. He is thought to be torn between England and Russia for his second preference. Turkey’s Senes Erzik is crucial for England, but it is unkown who he will back, though he is likely to disagree with Blatter regardless following Turkey’s failed Euro 2016 bid. Then there is the Cypriot vote, and they are suspected to be likely to follow the Platini line. Franz Beckanbauer will vote for Russia but if they fail before England then his allegiance could switch that way. And finally, Sepp Blatter, who is notoriously difficult to predict, but reports suggest that he is swinging towards the Russians. If they don’t make the final two, his vote will be anyone’s guess.
So the vote really could go a number of ways. The prediction for the first round is that Spain/Portugal will lead the way with nine votes. After them, there are four fairly certain voters for both Russia and three for England, with the Holland/Belgium bid likely to take two votes. The final four votes – from Turkey, Guatemala, Trinidad & Tobago and Thailand will be crucial. England’s hopes will rest on these votes, as their best chance of success will be to knock the Russians out in the first round and set up a direct battle with Spain/Portugal. With the German, Belgian, Cypriot, Swiss and South Korean votes all likely to switch to England if Russia fall early, England could go neck and neck with the Iberians in the final count. The chances are that this is going to come down to one or two individuals, and what goes on inside the mind of the swing voters is anyone’s guess. All is not lost for England, but this is a three way race that is too tight to call.
