Though the media have a tendency to over-react in these situations, on this occasion they are probably right. Chelsea’s time at the top of English football is coming to an end.
Writing off Chelsea may be a knee jerk reaction, but for once, this reaction appears justified. Chelsea are on the slide, and are getting worse, and there is a very good chance they won’t win the league this year. There is a very good chance that crisis will turn to self destruction and Chelsea will slip out of the Premier League elite within a couple of years. That’s not because Chelsea lost to Sunderland at home. Their recent form is the symptom of the undiagnosed problems they have been suffering from for a while.
There are several reasons for their demise. Firstly, it is important to remember that Chelsea’s success has been achieved in an inflation filled bubble. Economically, Chelsea have benefited from the football boom, but their natural economic position is somewhere below the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United. Manchester United and Liverpool will always rise to the top because of their history and financial potential, which far outweighs their rivals. Arsenal will also be at the top for as long as they are able to take in more matchday revenue than their rivals. Chelsea on the other hand, have no solid financial footing. They have achieved success through a world class squad bought for them by Roman Abramovich, a squad which the club cannot afford to naturally maintain at its present level. The club is seeking to be run on a sustainable basis, and sustainability means that Chelsea will no longer be able to afford the quality of players that has taken them to the top.
The other main reason Chelsea are slipping, is because of the nature of their squad and their style. Chelsea are a ruthlessly effective machine. More so than any other side in recent English football history. Manchester United and Arsenal’s respective success was built on unpredictability going forward, someone doing something unexpected and creative to create the space and opportunities for them to take advantage.
Chelsea aren’t really like that. Even under Ancelotti, they’re only a bit less like that than they were under Mourinho. With Chelsea, you know exactly what is coming. You know how you’ll lose. Every team has a weakness, but Chelsea’s are more easily papered over, because they rely less on the unexpected, and more on efficient, hard work. If they lose Drogba they can replace him with Anelka. If they are without Malouda they have Kalou, or Benayoun, or visa-versa. Players who will put in the effort required to win Chelsea the game. For Chelsea, their victories are a result of their physical strength multiplied by their stamina.
Which is why it should not be a surprise that they are suffering without Frank Lampard. Lampard is a player of unique and unparalleled consistency. Not only that, but he is also Chelsea’s most creative player, setting up more goals last season for them than any other player. Lampard is also the Premier League’s most effective player over the last decade according to Opta statistics, and regularly tops their rankings for individual players per season. Lampard’s importance to Chelsea should not be underestimated. There are lies, lies and statistics. But Lampard’s consistent topping of the Opta pile cannot be a coincidence. Chelsea are a team who win through efficiency, and Lampard is the main hub of that efficiency. In terms of significance, he is considerably more important to Chelsea than Thierry Henry or Cristiano Ronaldo were to Arsenal or Manchester United.
With Lampard ageing, and their other key players – Didier Drogba and John Terry coming towards the end of their careers – Chelsea are likely to slip out of the Premiership’s elite as financial common sense combined with lower revenues than their rivals means that they are not likely to be able to sustain the level that they have achieved in recent years. Chelsea’s success has been highly impressive, but it has also been built on an unustainable bubble of debt, which is about to burst.
