It would not be stretching things to suggest that it is not the most imaginative of predictions, but then, the prices reflect the strength of betting in favour of those teams. So how are Europe’s big sides shaping up?
That is why England are fourth favourites, and could explain why France are only fifth favourites. So how are Europe’s major nations shaping up, with just over a year to go until the tournament begins?
Spain (7/2)
The World champions lost some of their aura of invincibility when they were crushed 4-1 in Buenos Aires in August, though they have swept to four successive wins in an admittedly rather simple group. David Villa has just broken the country’s top scoring record and there are few signs that Vincente del Bosque’s men are on the wane. The triumvirate of Sergio Busquets, Xavi and Andres Iniesta still control the country’s midfield in the style of their performances for Barcelona, and going by those, there is little to suggest Spain won’t again be resounding favourites and the dominant side in Ukraine and Poland next summer. The main question is to ask who can challenge them?
Germany (9/2)
The obvious money against Spain will be on the Germans, who combine technique, strength and ruthless organisation. Much of their success in the World Cup was built on two key factors; a new generation of youngsters who swept to victory in the Euro 2009 under 21 championships, and ruthless attention to detail. Germany were able to call upon the research of academics who had studied the play of their opponents to identify weaknesses to exploit; such as with England, hitting them quickly on the counter attack. The role of Paul the Octopus should not go unmentioned, but he is dead and won’t be able to stamp his mark on next summer’s championship. Germany will be Germany; perpetual contenders, but do they have the spark of genius to match Spain?
Holland (7/1)
Reading into Dutch qualifying campaigns is notoriously difficult, given that in recent years they have qualified with relative ease. Yet the country’s footballing personality appears to be morphing, with the traditional fighting between members of its squad making way for a more united team. But at the same time, they lack some of the fantasy of previous Dutch teams. In Wesley Sneijder, Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben they have flair, but van Marwijk’s system seems to squeeze as much of their natural skill out of them as possible, and as such, the Dutch were unrecognisable in the last World Cup from the teams that thrilled in the 1970s and 80s. Always contenders, rarely the victors, Holland will likely be in the running, but at the price of 7/1, money is better spent on their rivals.
England (8/1)
Fabio Capello has struggled to get England passing the ball on the floor as he fights the team’s natural direct approach and tactical inflexibility. The current generation of English players came through a poor youth system which rewards the strong over the technical, and neglects the tactical side of the game, which is the main cause of Capello’s inability to get the best out of talented players. Capello’s approach is based on rigid tactics and organisation, but sometimes the tools just aren’t good enough to get the job done. The next generation, led by Jack Wilshere, Adam Johnson and Theo Walcott show intelligence, technique and tactical awareness that the team which failed in South Africa last summer have never possessed, and they could be the spark for England to finally win their first European Championship.
France (9/1)
The French are probably the team who the smart money will be on. Laurent Blanc has created a team with an impressive blend of strength and control, forming a solid back line based on the growing Philip Mexes-Adil Rami partnership, with Yann M’Vila holding in midfield ahead of them. The Rennes youngster has been superb for both club and country when called upon and is making a big name for himself already. And with talent as rich as the likes of Yoann Gourcuff, Samir Nasri, Florent Malouda, Franck Ribery, Mathieu Valbuena and Jeremy Menez going forward, France do not lack creativity to supply the resurgent talent of Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema or PSG’s Guillame Hourau.
Italy (10/1)
The Italians were almost as bad as France in the last World Cup, and finishing below New Zealand was a low point in the proud country’s football history. But with Cesare Prandelli now at the helm, Italy are showing signs of rediscovering what makes them Europe’s most successful international team. Against Slovenia last weekend they were outplayed for long periods but held firm and won thanks to a goal from naturalised Brazilian Thiago Motta near the end. Prandelli has ditched much of the older generation who flopped in South Africa and has got Italy passing the ball on the floor and most importantly, through the centre, making them far less predictable. With the talent of Daniele de Rossi and Alberto Aquilani in the centre of the pitch Italy have a robust midfield, and with the likes of Juventus’ injured forward Fabio Quagliarella leading the new generation, the Azzurri should follow France in restoring their dignity sooner rather than later.
The six sides analysed here are favourites for a reason, and the conclusion to arrive is that any could win the next European Championship. It is the obvious conclusion, and barely needs analysing to arrive at. Yet to guess who will win it is a little more tricky. Spain are the obvious candidates, but will Xavi still be at his best? His game is based on short passes and intelligence, which aren’t likely to diminish as much as he ages as that of a player who relies on pace would. But mathematics teaches us about probability, and probability indicates that at some point, Spain will wane, and their star will fall. The football cycle means that this can happen very quickly, and with the European Championship over a year away, the chances of Spain ceding some of its aura are slim. Yet at the same time, Germany continue to make daunting progress, with its playmaker Mesut Ozil and midfielder Sami Khedira gaining invaluable experience at Real Madrid. But it is France who are probably the team to watch. They have a superb array of talent to choose from, and much of it up and coming. Hugo Lloris, Adil Rami, Mamadou Sakho, Yann M’Vila, Yoann Gourcuff and Mathieu Valbuena demonstrate their strength; established stars already making waves in France and we haven’t touched on Ribery, Nasri or Benzema. A solid defence with the experience of Mexes complementing the youth of Rami means that Laurent Blanc’s side could well bounce back from its humiliating experience in South Africa in style. Experience, youth, talent and an excellent manager; Les Bleus could steal the Spanish crown.
