The conventional wisdom says yes, the thoughtful wisdom is yet to judge. For there are a number of daunting opponents lying ahead for City in the qualifying round of Europe’s premier club competition. Bayern Munich, Lyon and Villarreal to name just the hardest.
The crucial thing is understanding the complicated procedure which UEFA has devised to work out who plays off against whom else. It is something like this. The ten teams finishing either 2nd or 3rd (depending on the country they are from) in the leagues of the countries ranked 5th-10th play each other in the first play off stage.
This means that teams from Portugal, Russia, Ukraine, Holland, Turkey, Greece, Denmark, Belgium, Romania and Scotland play off in the first round of qualifying games against each other.
Then the teams from the top five nations who finish 3rd or 4th in their leagues all join the play off system. In Germany, this looks very likely to be Bayern Munich. In Italy, this will be either Udinese, Roma or Lazio. In Spain, it will almost certainly be Villarreal, and in France, it is highly likely to be Lyon. One of Sporting Lisbon and Braga will be in the play offs from Portugal, and both are ahead of Manchester City in the rankings. Either Ajax or PSV will be in the qualifiers from Holland, both of whom are again in front of City in the rankings.
So it is highly likely that once Manchester City get to the stage where 10 teams will play off against each other, they will be one of the five teams who aren’t seeded; meaning they are likely to be playing Bayern Munich, Villarreal or Lyon. If Roma finish 4th in Italy, they will be a fourth side Roberto Mancini’s men hope to avoid. Realistically, bearing in mind likely qualifiers and their respective UEFA ranking, the easiest option City can hope for would be one of PSV Eindhoven/Ajax or Sporting Lisbon/Braga. The only way City will be a seed is for a highly unlikely sequence of events to occur, either involving Bayern Munich overhauling Bayer Leverkusen’s three point advantage with one game remaining in the Bundesliga, Udinese or Lazio beating Roma to the fourth Champions League spot and then having both PSV Eindhoven/Ajax and Sporting Lisbon/Braga knocked out in the first round of the Champions League play offs.
It probably won’t happen, and the most likely scenario will be that City will face a 60% chance of facing a team which is both stronger and more experienced than them (Lyon, Villarreal or Bayern Munich) or a 40% chance of playing Udinese/PSV/Ajax/Braga/Sporting, beatable but tricky opponents.
City may well still make it to the Champions League, but the hard work has barely started. A trip to the Allianz Arena to take on Franck Ribery, Bastian Schweinsteiger and co. could mean a quick return to the drawing board for Manchester City’s Champions League hopes.
