Refereeing errors do even themselves out, but not completely

Desire. Ability. Intelligence. Mental strength. Technique. And then of course, pure fortune. And an essential part of pure fortune is a referee’s ability to make the right decisions on difficult and contentious decisions throughout the game.

It is this which is most concerning for a true fan of the game. It is often said that refereeing decisions even themselves out. It is true. A team may suffer awful luck, for example Manchester United’s loss to Chelsea from 1-0 up as a result of some questionable refereeing or the near blatant two penalties they should have been given against Newcastle this week at 0-0.

On the other hand, United did not see Nemanja Vidic sent off against West Ham at 2-0 down. So have referees cost Man Utd just one point? Because if Vidic had been sent off, surely they’d have lost to West Ham? Or have they cost them four, because United always come back and would have done so against West Ham irrelevant of Vidic’s red card?

The answer is of course, no one knows. No one has a clue.

Arsenal’s season may have unravelled after losing a 4-0 lead at Newcastle. Whatever questions endure over the club’s mental fragility, it seems unlikely that the 4-0 advantage would have been squandered had Joey Barton, and not Abou Diaby, been sent off, as would have been the right decision for his dangerous and reckless tackle on the Frenchman, as well as if the referee had not given two penalties to Newcastle, of which no-one was able to work out why they were given afterwards.

Referees don’t make these mistakes intentionally, but the idea that their errors even themselves out is only partially true. They even themselves out, but not completely.

In a league where titles can be won by a couple of points or relegation decided by even tighter margins, it seems entirely contrary to the principle of sport that such monumental results can be decided by refereeing error.

It is why it is crucial that a three challenge rule similar to tennis is brought in. Such a rule would allow managers to challenge three decisions throughout a match. It means they will not contest a 50-50 free kick which goes against them in the middle of the pitch, but could question the award of a highly contested penalty which could cost their team points. They could receive an extra challenge in cup games that go to extra time.

The argument that it interrupts the flow of the game is disingenuous. Tennis is a sport played at a higher pace than football, and the ball is in play more often during a tennis game. And there are often most importantly, decisions that an umpire gets wrong that can be overturned at crucial moments in games. And in tennis a player decides whether to stop a rally to challenge when the ball comes into their side of the court. Football is slightly different in this respect, but it is not beyond the intellect of football officials to allow a game to continue until a natural break, and if a team scores after not being penalised for a foul on an opponent, it is reasonable to disallow the goal, and give the other side a free kick.

This season’s title could come down to just a couple of points. The numerous decisions that referees have got wrong in games involving Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are unlikely to have balanced each other out precisely. They may not even be close. If you consider that a team may suffer from 20 potential lost points from refereeing error, they may on the other hand only receive 15 points in favourable decisions that have gone their way. The five point gap is significant, and so it is why being allowed to challenge the referee is essential. If this season’s title is decided by a couple of points, it would say it all that no-one really would know who should have finished on top if refereeing mistakes did not have such a significant impact. There is no suggestion that they favour any team over another, but there is also no doubt that referees unfortunately do have an impact on the outcome of the biggest results in football. It is surely intolerable that we have a situation where no-one really knows which team deserves to finish at the top of the league each year because of the inconsistency and errors of referees.

That is what has to change.