The most prominent team who have found themselves mired in the increasingly complex relegation battle is Aston Villa, but the reality is that they were never out of the relegation fight, particularly in a season where there is no certainty for the drop. There is no repeat of Swindon in 1994 or Sunderland in 2005. Often two teams are certainties for relegation, but not this season.
For much of the campaign West Ham have sat at the bottom of the table. But Avram Grant’s calm approach to the relegation dogfight has allowed the club to slowly, steadily climb their way out of the bottom three on goal difference from Wolves. Thomas Hitzlsberger’s comeback, Demba Ba’s goals and Rob Green’s revival have helped Grant to lift his team into a position where they can credibly claim to be on course to avoid relegation. They are not the certainties the press wrote them off as when Grant seemed a dead man walking back in January. How foolish in hindsight the club were to almost dispense with the Israeli, a decision that would probably have cost the club its chance to avoid the drop, which it may now do.
So to Wolves, the team who have spent the second longest portion of their season at the bottom of the table. Mick McCarthy’s side have made a habit of dropping to the bottom of the table in time for a clash with someone like Liverpool at Anfield, and duly winning. The club’s ability to beat the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United is perplexing given their perilous position in the bottom three at present. They play great football at times, but they make dreadful, costly errors, which is the main reason that they are still threatened by relegation.
There is always a team who fall like a stone, and this year it was thought that West Brom or Blackpool could be that team after their impressive starts to the season were followed by periods of poor form in recent months. But Blackpool have shown that they are not ‘half season’ wonders, as they continue to demonstrate a carefree attacking instinct that threatens to give the seasiders a second season in the big time. Victory over Tottenham last month emphasised that they will not be succumbing to the predictions of a swift return to the Championship.
Along with Blackpool, West Brom have recovered sufficiently to ease their relegation fears. An alarming run of form has been halted with four successive draws under Roy Hodgson. But they are just a point above the relegation zone.
Joining the newly promoted duo on 33 points are Aston Villa and Blackburn. Villa appear too strong for the relegation battle on paper; a team with the likes of Darren Bent, Jean Makoun and Ashley Young should be too powerful for their rivals. Yet defeats to the likes of Wolves keeps them in trouble, and the lack of creativity, allied to defensive fragility, could be a terminal flaw that condemns the club to a surprise relegation. If any year was to see a team of Villa’s size drop into the Championship, this is it.
Blackburn similarly, are faced with the worry over their future despite the ambitious plans of the Venky’s group which took the club over. Whilst few could blame them for disposing of the services of Sam Allardyce, whose brand of football was about as exciting as intensive dental surgery, the appointment of Steve Kean was a shock. Yet he seemed to have kept the club plugging away, allying defensive resilience with uncharacteristic flair. But they like Villa, have not been consistent enough to keep themselves far away from the relegation fight, and so they too, fear for their future.
Fulham are just three points off the relegation zone, and even Stoke in 10th place are just five points off the drop. Whilst Sunderland are only a point above, they, like Bolton and Everton above them, are too expansive to worry about the threat of relegation.
The relegation battle will go the wire. Wigan Athletic have held on impressively in the Premier League, but with the quality of the division improving faster than they are, it could be the final few months in the top flight for Roberto Martinez’s entertaining side.
Similarly, Birmingham City’s season could be set to end in tragedy despite the glory of their Carling Cup victory. They have looked desperately poor in recent weeks, and indeed have done for much of the season. Capable of beating anyone on their day, as evidenced by the victory over Arsenal at Wembley, they are also capable of producing dire, atrocious football as well. Like Wigan, they are probably not improving as quickly as the Premier League around them, and chances are they will fall back into the Championship.
So, the third spot. Wolves are capable of outplaying anyone on their day, and when their backs are against the wall, they have produced some of the results of the season. Chances are if they are just a point off survival and need to win on the last day, they can and will do so. West Ham similarly, are putting together a run of form and look the team most likely to put together a run of consistent form good enough to save themselves. Which leaves West Brom, Blackpool, Aston Villa, Blackburn,
And that, in a nutshell, sums up the relegation battle. Trying to figure out who will go down is like trying to solve some kind of over complicated theoretical mathematical equation using invisible numbers, and lots of ‘x’s and ‘y’s. No team is so hopeless that they are doomed. But none are so good that they can be complacent. At a push, two teams can be predicted. But the third? Not even god knows that.
